084
ACUS11 KWNS 271527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271526
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-271800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN UTAH...SOUTHEAST IDAHO...AND WESTERN
WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271526Z - 271800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT SEVERE WEATHER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMA PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN, A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NV. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT
CONVECTION, A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS NORTHERN UT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN UT AS OF 15Z. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH THE
CONTINUED WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA, LATEST CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY INCREASE
IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND
SOUTHEAST ID WITH ACTIVITY SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING INTO WESTERN WY.
STEADILY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL AND
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...
LAT...LON 41101394 42091363 43011206 44031086 44070973 43780918
43090917 42350919 41710990 41131087 40631208 40451291
40431366 41101394
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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