520
FNUS21 KWNS 271644
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VALID 271700Z - 281200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN
NEVADA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING...
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH, WESTERN COLORADO, AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.***
..MORNING UPDATE
A COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWESTERN WY LAST NIGHT,
AND HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
VERY POOR TO ESSENTIALLY NO RH RECOVERIES OCCURRED FROM
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN UT INTO NORTHERN AZ. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES (BELOW 15%) ACROSS THE CO RIVER
BASIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE.
AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
A 40-60 KT 700 MB JET WILL EMERGE DOWNSTREAM EXPANDING FROM THE AZ
STRIP TO THE CO WEST SLOPE. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL FURTHER REINFORCE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH
(POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH IN TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS) WILL COMBINE
WITH WIDESPREAD 5-15% RH VALUES ATOP A RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE,
MAINTAINING AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
PERSISTING HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS -- WITH POTENTIAL
LIGHTNING HOLDOVERS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS AND MANY ONGOING ACTIVE
WILDFIRES -- WILL GENERATE A DANGEROUS LONG DURATION BURNING PERIOD
(10+ HOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS) AS POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
AND LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO DAY 2/SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING, PASSING THROUGH WESTERN-CENTRAL UT BETWEEN
23Z-03Z, THEN STALLING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLORADO PLATEAU. RH WILL INCREASE, BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW HOURS OF STRONG GUSTS
(25 MPH OR GREATER) BEFORE EVENTUALLY CALMING SOME OVERNIGHT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY IMPACT A NUMBER OF FIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN NV
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL UT THIS EVENING.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/27/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0158 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH, WESTERN COLORADO, AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.***
A ROBUST FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL JET AMPLIFIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
CONTINUED EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING
ANTECEDENT DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ANY NEW IGNITIONS, LINGERING HOLDOVERS, AND
ONGOING LARGE FIRES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
..EASTERN UTAH, WESTERN COLORADO, AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL JET AMPLIFIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SUSTAINED, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO THE UPPER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THESE 25-35 MPH (POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH IN
TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS) WINDS WILL OVERLAP VERY LOW RH VALUES OF
5-15% AND RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS NOTED IN THE 80-95+ PERCENTILES)
THAT WERE EXACERBATED BY DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50+ MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL
PROMOTE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND
AN EXTENDED PERIOD (10+ HOURS OF FOR SOME LOCATIONS) OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN.
IN ADDITION, ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY PRESENTS
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LIGHTNING HOLDOVERS TO EMERGE,
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND LINGERING BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO FORECAST BEFORE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON D2/SUNDAY. A BROADER AREA OF ELEVATED WIND/RH CONDITIONS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST
WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH OVERLAP LOW RH OF
10-20%.
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS OUTLOOK WAS A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF
THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS OWING TO TRENDS WITHIN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA (IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY); HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED DURATION OF
OVERLAP BETWEEN 30+ MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND RH BELOW 10% IS LOWER
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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