586
ACUS11 KWNS 280147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280146
SDZ000-NEZ000-280345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 406...
VALID 280146Z - 280345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 406 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
10-11 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING PROGRESSING THROUGH 30-40 KT DIFLUENT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 500 MB MAY MAINTAIN NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN ONGOING
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, DESPITE
INCREASING INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER PARCELS. THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (FROM WHICH UPDRAFT
INFLOW IS EMANATING) IS NARROW, BUT RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS IT MAY BE
DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD. IT STILL PROBABLY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, LEADING TO AT LEAST GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, UNTIL THEN, CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO POSE A
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 06/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44670145 45810009 45479870 43489945 42920061 43110169
43990117 44670145
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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