812
FNUS21 KWNS 280637
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
..SYNOPSIS
A LONGWAVE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY, WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REMAINING RELATIVELY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN. CONCURRENTLY, AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLORADO PLATEAU. THIS WILL PROMOTE A THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF
ENHANCED DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST TODAY.
..FOUR CORNERS REGION
A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25+ MPH
(WITH GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH POSSIBLE) AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-15%
IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH, WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
WITH THIS MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXACERBATING
FUEL DRYNESS/RECEPTIVENESS (ERCS NOTED IN THE 80-95+ PERCENTILES)
AND THE ANTICIPATION FOR POOR OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
(RHS NOTED TO BE LINGERING AT OR BELOW 15-25% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AS OF 0530 UTC), SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND COLORADO PLATEAU. A BROADER AREA OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST WHERE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL OVERLAP LOW RH
OF 10-20%. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DRAWN AREAS WITH
THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
RECENT GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGHING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATER TONIGHT. FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SOME RH RECOVERY AND A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED (WITH A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 10-20
MPH WINDS POSSIBLE).
..CHALMERS.. 06/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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