294
ACUS11 KWNS 281235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281234
IAZ000-MNZ000-281430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN AND
EAST-CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411...
VALID 281234Z - 281430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA, A PORTION OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, AND PERHAPS INTO MORE OF CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IOWA LATER
THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN AND NORTHERN IA, WITH THE LARGER/STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL IA. THIS AREA IS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, WITH
ACCESS TO A MORE FAVORABLE INFLOW AIR MASS. WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY COOLER INTO EASTERN IA, THE FAVORABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN THETA-E ADVECTION THIS
MORNING, FUELING THE MCS.
A SEVERE GUST OF 68 MPH WAS MEASURED EARLIER AT SPENCER, IA WITH THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN PART OF THE BOW, AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS ALSO
INDICATE SPORADIC HAIL OVER 1.00" DIAMETER IS LIKELY.
ADDITIONAL STORM CORES WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE JUST
SOUTH/EAST OF THE MAIN BOW HAVE ALSO INCREASED RECENTLY, AND BRIEF
HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THAT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
IA, AS THE SOUTHERN FLANK FAVORS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. STORM GUSTS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING, DESPITE WEAKER
INSTABILITY AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE ORGANIZED.
..JEWELL.. 06/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 44629430 44479362 43919273 43049210 42149175 41869199
41699247 41819336 42269390 42519446 42639495 42869507
43289445 43789414 44069412 44629430
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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