495
FNUS21 KWNS 281647
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST SLOPE AND COLORADO PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON.***
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
A TARGETED EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA WAS INTRODUCED
TO THE DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS
A COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY 25-35 MPH WINDS AND 5-10%
RH TO OVERLAP EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING WILDFIRES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
EVENING, PUSHING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEASTERN UT BETWEEN
23-03Z. A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, TRANSITIONING
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (GUSTS OVER 20 MPH), LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT, BRINGING SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
TO PARTS OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO.
EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER RISK AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
VERY CONDUCIVE TO RAPID SPREAD/FIRE GROWTH ON EXISTING WILDFIRES AND
NEW IGNITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/28/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0136 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A LONGWAVE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY, WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REMAINING RELATIVELY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN. CONCURRENTLY, AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
COLORADO PLATEAU. THIS WILL PROMOTE A THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF
ENHANCED DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST TODAY.
..FOUR CORNERS REGION
A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25+ MPH
(WITH GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH POSSIBLE) AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-15%
IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH, WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
WITH THIS MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXACERBATING
FUEL DRYNESS/RECEPTIVENESS (ERCS NOTED IN THE 80-95+ PERCENTILES)
AND THE ANTICIPATION FOR POOR OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
(RHS NOTED TO BE LINGERING AT OR BELOW 15-25% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AS OF 0530 UTC), SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND COLORADO PLATEAU. A BROADER AREA OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST WHERE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL OVERLAP LOW RH
OF 10-20%. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DRAWN AREAS WITH
THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
RECENT GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGHING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATER TONIGHT. FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SOME RH RECOVERY AND A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED (WITH A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 10-20
MPH WINDS POSSIBLE).
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page