680
ACUS11 KWNS 290321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290321
NDZ000-290515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 290321Z - 290515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE
A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A STRONG DOWNBURST BEFORE
WEAKENING, WHILE OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...WHILE THE WARMEST ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY, RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
700 MB LEVEL REMAIN AS WARM AS 10+ C ALONG A CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ASSOCIATED
INHIBITION, COUPLED WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING, HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID DISSIPATION OF EARLIER ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN
THIS REGIME.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS PERSISTED, AND
EVEN INCREASED AND INTENSIFIED A BIT, WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STRONGER CAPPING. THIS APPEARS
AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A
SUBTLE WAVE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MIGRATING TOWARD
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE
THROUGH 05-07Z. AS IT DOES, THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC DYNAMIC PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
STRONG DOWNBURST, BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND/OR SPREADS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 06/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48860017 48649914 47660040 47440095 47600142 48860017
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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