442
FNUS21 KWNS 290656
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..SYNOPSIS
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. WHILE THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM A NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, A SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS AND LINGERING
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXPANSIVE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWEST TODAY.
..SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION
THE AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FORECAST IN THE 10-15% RANGE AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF ANTECEDENT DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXACERBATING FUEL
DRYNESS/RECEPTIVENESS (ERCS IN THE 80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES OR
GREATER), THIS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA, SOUTHEASTERN UTAH,
WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO, WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALSO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO EMERGE WILL
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL COLORADO SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO, WHERE ERCS ARE NOTED TO RANGE FROM THE 90TH TO 99TH
PERCENTILES. MODESTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
MARGINALLY STRONGER SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS
AREA, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING A LONGER DURATION AND
BROADER OVERLAP OF 20+ MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND RH LESS THAN 15%. A
TARGETED UPGRADE COULD BE NEEDED IN THE D1 UPDATE SHOULD
GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL WIND/RH
CONDITIONS ACROSS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA WITHIN THIS REGION.
..CHALMERS.. 06/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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