453
ACUS11 KWNS 290803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290802
SDZ000-NEZ000-291000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...
VALID 290802Z - 291000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN INTENSE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, PRODUCING
WINDS OF 75-90 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE MERGED NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SD, WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATING
THE EARLY STAGES OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A COMPACT BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
SEVERE MCS. ASIDE FROM THE SUPERCELL OVER BENNETT COUNTY SD, RADAR
ALSO SHOWS A WARM ADVECTION WING DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST OF IT,
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THIS CELL ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THIS EVOLUTION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR A SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB THETA-E
GRADIENT, WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURGE.
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS, STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT,
AND A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
COMPLEX WILL STRENGTHEN, AND POSSIBLE ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
DOWNSTREAM INTO MORE OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHEAST ND AS
THE SCENARIO EVOLVES.
..JEWELL.. 06/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42900231 43320213 43610187 44000134 44560086 45220005
45179925 44989881 44579880 43819925 43180022 42920144
42760224 42900231
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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