142
ACUS11 KWNS 291407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291406
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413...
VALID 291406Z - 291600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH,
LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONGOING BOW ECHO.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 14Z, THE KABR RADAR INDICATED A COMPACT BUT
INTENSE BOW ECHO OVER MARSHALL, DAY, AND ROBERTS COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST SD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 KT. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED WITH MESO-VORTICES FORMING NEAR THE APEX OF
THE BOW. MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM VERY NEAR A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, WHERE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LIKELY RESIDES. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MN THIS MORNING WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
CURRENT MOTION TAKING IT TO THE EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#413 BETWEEN 1530 AND 16Z (10:30-11:00 AM CDT).
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG) IN THE VICINITY OF AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW ECHO, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL
VIGOROUS UP/DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 60-80 MPH RANGE AND LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF-BALL SIZE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
AT A SIMILAR SPEED OF THE BOW ECHO, ALLOWING IT TO RESIDE WITHIN A
ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
..MEAD.. 06/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45479832 46339775 47069732 47339659 47169571 46809552
46199562 45499661 45179727 45119760 45109811 45479832
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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