355
ACUS11 KWNS 291543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291543
MIZ000-291745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291543Z - 291745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ONGOING STORMS THIS MORNING. THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI, WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS EXHIBITING EPISODIC SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THAT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PER KAPX VWP. MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
OBSERVED WIND PROFILE DATA SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF PERIODIC STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...APX...
LAT...LON 45598628 45958581 45698432 44878335 44338380 44418467
44828548 45188620 45598628
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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