466
ACUS11 KWNS 291742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291741
NDZ000-291945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291741Z - 291945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL
HAZARDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 19-20Z. A WATCH IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST SD. THAT ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF A N-S-ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL ND AND WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
PIVOTING THROUGH EASTERN WY. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S AND A GRADUALLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000+ J/KG, PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/TROUGH BY 19-20Z WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHERLY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR INITIAL SUPERCELL STORM
MODES WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN RECENT CAM GUIDANCE
THAT INITIAL STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS, WHICH WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46630121 47940135 48710100 48939969 48699864 47839809
47199851 46629898 46189942 46090048 46630121
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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