863
FNUS22 KWNS 291929
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN
UTAH...
..20Z UPDATE
AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA WAS INTRODUCED ACROSS
CENTRAL-NORTHERN NM INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CO ON DAY 2/TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE
SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT FARTHER WEST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NM/CO HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE SUFFICIENT
LIFT AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE, A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, FAST STORM MOTIONS, AND PWATS OF 0.5-0.7" FAVORING
LESS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD FURTHER
EXACERBATE ANY NEW/ONGOING FIRES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/29/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0158 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AMID PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
WITH SEVERAL PRECEDING DAYS OF DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST.
..FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGER
WAVELENGTH TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE WEST, A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE FOUR CORNERS/COLORADO PLATEAU. LATEST
HIGH-RES AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED (SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH) SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA/NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-10%. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, ERCS SPAN FROM THE 80TH TO
98TH PERCENTILE (LOCALLY GREATER). THIS COMBINATION OF DRY/RECEPTIVE
FUELS AND WIND/RH CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
COLORADO PLATEAU. A BROADER AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IS FORECAST ACROSS ADJACENT REGIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST,
AND THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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