544
ACUS11 KWNS 292038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292037
TXZ000-NMZ000-292230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292037Z - 292230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TERRAIN OF WEST
TEXAS, AND CUMULUS IS DEEPENING ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THESE STORMS ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL JET AXIS, AND THE
18Z MAF RAOB SHOWED RELATIVELY MODEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS ALSO
APPARENT IN SHORT-TERM RAP FORECAST PROFILES, AND THIS MAY PROVIDE A
RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS MAY OCCUR, AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
RISK OF SEVERE GUSTS. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SPARSE IN COVERAGE, AND THEREFORE, A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.
..SUPINIE/GUYER.. 06/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32260378 34050286 35820194 36150152 36150095 36010065
35430052 34310079 31660187 30110217 29790260 29460326
29600403 30080445 32260378
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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