669
ACUS11 KWNS 300003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300003
MIZ000-WIZ000-300130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE MICHIGAN
UPPER PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416...
VALID 300003Z - 300130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416
HAS APPEARED TO UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
(LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED MUCIN), WITH GENERALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS
AND WEAKENING REFLECTIVITY CORES NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK
HAS DECREASED, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONCURRENT DECREASE IN
OBSERVED WIND/HAIL REPORTS OVER THE SAME TIME SPAN.
WHILE THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THIS REGION, CONTINUED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM
AIR ADVECTION ATOP A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE/REDEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE REMNANT MCS. WHILE THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, MODERATELY STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONDITIONALLY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION
THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED. OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE MCS REAR INFLOW
JET (40-45 KTS SAMPLED AT AROUND 1000 KFT AGL BY KMQT) AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED, STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE THE
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND TRANSPORT THIS MOMENTUM DOWNWARD.
..CHALMERS.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 46408909 46818885 47108851 47268783 47288696 47158627
46968566 46828553 46548557 46148584 45778629 45508686
45328749 45258796 45278851 45348911 45438949 45538960
45908965 46408909
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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