638
ACUS11 KWNS 300025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300025
MNZ000-NDZ000-300230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 300025Z - 300230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THROUGH 9-11 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR (INCLUDING MID 70S F
SURFACE DEW POINTS) ADVECTING INTO THE VICINITY OF A DEEP SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK IS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEP-LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A
PLUME OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED
MIXED-LAYER HAS SLOWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT.
A RECENT INCREASE IN DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FINALLY
UNDERWAY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF GRADUAL WEAK COOLING FROM THE WEST
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, AS WELL AS ALONG A RETREATING DOWNSTREAM
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, ROUGHLY CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA MN. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT,
WHERE A 40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR TORNADOES.
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, ASSOCIATED
WITH A NORTHEASTWARD PIVOTING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH, MAY NOT
BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL 02-04Z, BUT IT APPEARS THIS THREAT
COULD COMMENCE A BIT EARLIER.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47409651 47589574 47199473 46969421 46179337 45709398
45739472 45999554 46199593 46349642 46569674 47129691
47409651
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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