154
ACUS11 KWNS 300304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300304
WIZ000-MNZ000-300500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 419...
VALID 300304Z - 300500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 419 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR EVOLVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, INTO AND
THROUGH THE 11 PM-MIDNIGHT CDT TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION NOW RAPIDLY PIVOTING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS WILL OUTPACE THE NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT, WHICH THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS WILL
WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH, AND/OR THROUGH
A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER, TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE UPSCALE GROWING
CLUSTER. HOWEVER, AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LARGELY
DISCRETE, THE HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POTENTIAL
NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY ALONG THE BOUNDARY, COULD STILL SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR TORNADOES IN EVOLVING SUPERCELLS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS, BEFORE VEERING FLOW IN LOWER-LEVELS LEADS TO LESS CONDUCIVE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
..KERR.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 48169568 47419425 46389249 45909261 45939386 46579498
47729615 48169568
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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