606
ACUS11 KWNS 300642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300642
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NE...SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST
IA...SOUTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420...
VALID 300642Z - 300815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A STORM CLUSTER WITH GUSTS OF NEAR/ABOVE 75 MPH MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE. EVENTUAL
DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL SUPERCELL CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF UPSCALE GROWTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THIS CLUSTER MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, ALONG A PRONOUNCED MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
GRADIENT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. STRONG TO EXTREME
BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE AND STRONG BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS (POTENTIALLY
75-85 MPH), THOUGH WHETHER THE ONGOING CLUSTER BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY
ORGANIZED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF THIS CALIBER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS, DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED INTO
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42119637 42299686 42609707 43049667 43429621 43939563
44159479 44219429 44149394 43769391 43539421 43259453
42649538 42279598 42119637
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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