997
ACUS48 KWNS 300840
SWOD48
SPC AC 300838
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WITHIN THE EAST WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AND
DEVELOP WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES VARY WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE.
AT THE SURFACE, A MOSTLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MODIFIED/REINFORCED BY CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG/NEAR IT ON
PRECEDING DAYS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST, THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY GET PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY THE DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL THEN BE TRANSPORTED FARTHER
NORTH/WEST IN THE PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND. THE GENERAL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHERE
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES/MCVS WILL PROPAGATE AND SPUR CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER MCS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SIMILAR TO D3/THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THURSDAY'S CONVECTION
WILL IMPACT THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE. INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME SEVERE THREAT IS
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV FROM
CONVECTION IN THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE
ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT PREDICTABILITY OF ANY HIGHER THREAT
CORRIDORS IS LOW.
..WENDT.. 06/30/2026
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