830
ACUS11 KWNS 301535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301534
MIZ000-WIZ000-301730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422...
VALID 301534Z - 301730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422. SOME REMNANT OF THE ONGOING STORMS COULD
MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
PERIODIC INTENSIFICATION-WEAKENING CYCLES WITH THE STORMS ONGOING
WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF GREEN BAY. THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A
MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AS
HIGH AS 3000-3500 J/KG, PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE STORM
BEHAVIOR THUS FAR SUGGESTS THEY MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND
ARE NOT FULLY REALIZING THE AVAILABLE BUOYANCY. THE CURRENT KGRB VWP
IS SAMPLING LARGELY WESTERLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WITH 40-50 KT SPEEDS
NOTED ABOVE 5-6 KM.
THE ENVIRONMENT DESCRIBED ABOVE IS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION,
ASSUMING UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH TIME OWING TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSHEAR PROPAGATION ALONG AN
ORGANIZING COLD POOL.
SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WI STORMS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS LOWER MI THIS MORNING, WHICH IS
SLOWING THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.
..MEAD.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...
LAT...LON 44468939 45128908 45138734 44958580 44268563 43868626
43878785 44108872 44228909 44468939
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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