910
ACUS11 KWNS 301624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301623
NYZ000-301830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301623Z - 301830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA FROM KTYX INDICATE A BOW ECHO
WITH A WELL-DEFINED REAR-INFLOW JET MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 50
KT. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION TAKES THE BOW ECHO TO THE
VICINITY OF WATERTOWN, NY, BETWEEN 1:00-1:30 PM EDT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCS ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION; HOWEVER, STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING
MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. PERSISTENT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ADVECT THAT MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MCS.
THE CURRENT KTYX VWP INDICATES A VERTICALLY WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50
KT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 4-5 KM, YIELDING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE BOW ECHO INTO CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH GUSTS OF
60-70 MPH POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE EXPOSED TO AN EML PLUME
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONALLY,
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42927781 43747762 44377698 44357626 43407514 42637468
42157500 42207590 42277729 42927781
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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