740
FNUS21 KWNS 301654
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VALID 301700Z - 011200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA
EASTERN
UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
..MORNING UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREAS,
POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES CONTRIBUTED TO AN EXTENDED
BURNING PERIOD, WITH SOME FIRES REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD
RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 20%, INCLUDING SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL-NORTHERN
NM AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CO WHERE DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A LOCALIZED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK EXISTS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN CO WHERE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE UINTA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO AN ANTECEDENT MOIST AIRMASS
AVAILABLE IN WESTERN UT, ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UT HIGHER TERRAIN CURRENTLY DIVIDES A MOIST
AIRMASS TO THE WEST AND A DRY AIRMASS TO THE EAST, WHERE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS LESS LIKELY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE UINTA BASIN BETWEEN 21-03Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING. A LIGHTNING IGNITION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS MAY IMPACT ONGOING FIRES OR NEW IGNITIONS. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/30/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1247 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KNOTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LEE TROUGHING ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION, RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH AMID MINIMUM RH OF 5-15%. NORTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
EASTERN UTAH, WESTERN COLORADO, AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
WILL HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY
BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (5-20% PROBABILITIES) IN
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHILE
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AMID SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND MINIMUM
RH OF 15-20%, BUT THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE ARE LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED BY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. WETTER STORMS
AND GREATER STORM COVERAGE ARE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ISODRYT AREA. DEEP PYROCONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON ACTIVE LARGE FIRES
IN THE VICINITY OF THE OVERLAP OF ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE ISODRYT AREA.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page