981
ACUS11 KWNS 302234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302233
MIZ000-WIZ000-010000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424...
VALID 302233Z - 010000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424,
INCLUDING EASTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MICHIGAN
UPPER PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AND HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED REPORTS
OF SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS
GENERALLY MODEST (25-35 KTS) AND LOW-TO-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ACROSS THE REGION, STRONG TO EXTREME BUOYANCY
(4000-5000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. IN THE NEAR-TERM, CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE WITH A GREATER THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL OWING TO MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5
C/KM). SOME CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS MAY
THEN FOSTER UPSCALE GROWTH AND A TRANSITION TOWARDS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..CHALMERS.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 44538724 44338748 44218787 44218831 44338865 44488882
44698893 44868886 45268861 45648833 45948798 46028756
45898704 45528688 45108695 44768706 44538724
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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