797
ACUS11 KWNS 302246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302245
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-010045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425...
VALID 302245Z - 010045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF AN ORGANIZING
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING, ACCOMPANIED
BY A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL, AND INCREASING POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SWATHS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...BASED ON MESOANALYSIS OUTPUT, STRONGEST CONTINUING
DESTABILIZATION THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, DUE TO FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THIS IS FOCUSED WITHIN DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGHING,
WHERE VEERING FROM MODEST NEAR-SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLIES BENEATH 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLIES AROUND 500 MB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS
AT LEAST SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF FLOW/SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING, IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO LARGE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY.
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE RATON RIDGE VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO, AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS, INCLUDING ONE EVOLVING
MESO-BETA SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS EVOLVED. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVELS REMAIN WARM, AND THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER PARCELS, THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY EVENING.
..KERR.. 06/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 38670195 39730129 39659888 38269977 37000097 36850164
37110206 38670195
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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