345
ACUS11 KWNS 010014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010014
NEZ000-COZ000-010215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 010014Z - 010215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING EVOLVING
SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO, THROUGH 8-10 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE TO THE NORTHEAST OF DENVER, WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE. THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
SHIFT ACROSS AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH
02-04Z, DOWNSTREAM OF A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST OF THE WASATCH.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF DENVER, AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ON EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE
FLOW GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. THOUGH INHIBITION BENEATH WARM MID-LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER PARCELS, FURTHER
MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY SIZABLE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY.
WITHIN THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR. THIS MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY,
THEN AN ORGANIZING AND UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41260356 41850093 40440193 39830310 41260356
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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