817
ACUS11 KWNS 010101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010100
MIZ000-010300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 010100Z - 010300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS EVOLVED
EASTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE RADAR
IMAGERY FROM KGRB INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX HAS
LARGELY OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CORES, A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF
THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP TO SUSTAINED THIS CONVECTION
(AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE EAST) FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
INHIBITION, NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(GENERALLY 25-35 KTS) SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT, STRONG BUOYANCY (MLCAPE 3000-3500 J/KG) AND MARGINAL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME OWING TO THE EXPECTATION FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK
TO REMAIN LIMITED.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44768634 44758605 44558559 44248539 44028542 43788558
43608585 43478625 43418652 43638661 43848665 44098663
44398651 44768634
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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