652
ACUS11 KWNS 010213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010212
NYZ000-010415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...2PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 010212Z - 010415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...A LINEAR MCS WITH A REAR INFLOW JET AND DEVELOPING
BOOKEND VORTEX (PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTYX) IS CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN
TANDEM WITH A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AMID BROAD NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
ALONG A SURFACE BUOYANCY/THETA-E GRADIENT. AROUND 40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
THIS MCS; HOWEVER, COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
LARGELY TEMPER THE SEVERE THREAT ACCOMPANYING THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEVERTHELESS, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE
OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CORES, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER WHERE
AVAILABLE BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATER. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, BUT WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME OWING TO
THE EXPECTED LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAGNITUDE.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...
LAT...LON 45037526 45117495 45107460 44987443 44697432 44317442
44007465 43817492 43647545 43527605 43617665 43807705
44027727 44197729 44237704 44447622 44657582 45037526
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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