927
ACUS03 KWNS 010734
SWODY3
SPC AC 010733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A COMPLEX FORECAST IS EVIDENT ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE, THOUGH MODEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE MOST COMPLICATING PIECE OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
WITHIN THE MIDWEST DURING THE MORNING. THE NAM/GFS IS DECIDEDLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE NAM HAS A
STRONG ENOUGH MCS/MCV THAT IT PUSHES THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS A FAVORABLE
AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPATIAL EXTENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, A BROAD MARGINAL IS IN PLACE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC. SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS.
A MORE TARGETED SLIGHT RISK WAS ADDED FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NEBRASKA. HERE, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE EXPECTED MCS ON THURSDAY. THIS AREA HAS BEEN BIASED
SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS BEING ELEVATED ATOP OUTFLOW
FARTHER NORTH. SOME NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS POSSIBLE IF GREATER
AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURS. ANOTHER AREA WHERE GREATER PROBABILITIES
MAY BE NEEDED IS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE MCV THAT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY VICINITY. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC, STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MUCH WEAKER.
THAT SAID, A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.
..WENDT.. 07/01/2026
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