605
ACUS48 KWNS 010902
SWOD48
SPC AC 010900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT/BUILD WESTWARD. THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL BRING A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
SOME SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER NORTHWEST
INTO THE REGION.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH
AS LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED/WEAK BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS
MCVS FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE INCREASINGLY MUTED UPPER
RIDGE. SUBTLE LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY PROMOTE GREATER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGER, BUT STILL MODEST, SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED
FROM THE MOST BUOYANT AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY,
BUT SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY ALSO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AS TO WHERE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR.
..WENDT.. 07/01/2026
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