389
ACUS11 KWNS 011159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011159
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-011430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011159Z - 011430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AT 1155 UTC, A SMALL, FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WI. THIS CLUSTER IS MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS
OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE, WITH MID 70S F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
MLCAPE OF GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG, PER RECENT OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSES.
30-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION, AND THIS
CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT-TERM THREAT OF AT LEAST
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS EASTERN WI
IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLUSTER. AS A RESULT, THIS CLUSTER MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN, THOUGH
ITS LONGEVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO GENERALLY MODEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FARTHER WEST, EXTENSIVE CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME, AND POSE A
SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. FARTHER WEST,
MULTIPLE MCVS ARE NOTED FROM NORTHERN NE INTO NORTHEAST SD.
INCREASING FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER (AS DEPICTED IN SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE) ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MCVS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME UPTICK IN
STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY LATER THIS MORNING, NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO
CENTRAL WI.
WHILE TIMING OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING IF TRENDS SUPPORT AN
INCREASING COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43809382 44369391 44809234 44969153 45008947 44898793
44808737 44578735 44208748 43788768 43538780 43228790
43139019 43169168 43349314 43439364 43809382
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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