754
ACUS11 KWNS 011328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011328
MIZ000-011500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0828 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011328Z - 011500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A MEASURED 53 KNOT WIND GUST AT KOSH
AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS STORM WILL
LIKELY UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS
IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH 2500+ J/KG MLCAPE
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S PER APX 12Z RAOB. IN ADDITION,
41 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE, EVEN IF THE BOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE
LAKE, REINTENSIFICATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SEEMS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN BROKEN SKIES AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS, SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS THIS CLUSTER
CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN AND IF IT MAINTAINS STRENGTH OR SIGNS OF
IMMINENT RE-INTENSIFICATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEAR LIKELY,
A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44028648 44438727 44988672 45698539 45848471 45738428
45598395 45378358 44868336 44508418 44148612 44028648
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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