684
ACUS11 KWNS 011605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011605
MIZ000-011730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428...
VALID 011605Z - 011730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS
INCREASING.
DISCUSSION...THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH PRODUCED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WAS SUSTAINED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN, ALBEIT
WITH LESSER INTENSITY, AND HAS NOW PRODUCED AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL
WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS COLD POOL/OUTFLOW WITH THESE
STORMS INDICATING MODERATE MID-LEVEL ROTATION. IN ADDITION, STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF THE STORMS FARTHER WEST. WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST MICHIGAN AND THIS PORTION OF THE LINE HAS
SINCE STRENGTHENED WITH A 43 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT KTVC. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD
INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A
CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. EXPECT THE STRONGER CORES ON THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST AND PERHAPS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MORE OF A BOWING SEGMENT ALSO. IF THIS OCCURS,
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA AND WATCH 428 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXPANDED.
..BENTLEY.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43948681 45018639 45648510 45618384 45208322 44708317
44118326 43748374 43588523 43548614 43548664 43948681
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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