433
FNUS21 KWNS 011628
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
VALID 011700Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...AND EASTERN
UTAH...
..MORNING UPDATE
POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND GUSTY TERRAIN-INFLUENCED
WINDS LED TO ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR ON SEVERAL LARGE WILDFIRES INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE CRITICAL RISK AREA, DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY,
WITH RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO LESS THAN 12% (POTENTIALLY LESS THAN 5%
IN SOME TERRAIN-FAVORED PLACES). SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE FIRE
ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION, EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS, ADVERSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AND AGGRESSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR (AS SEEN ON MULTIPLE LARGE
FIRES) ARE CATEGORIZED BY TWO FUELS AND FIRE BEHAVIOR ADVISORIES
ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF CO AND UT, FAR SOUTHERN WY, THE AZ STRIP, AND
EASTERN NV.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NV AND NORTHWEST UT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ID. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG AMID A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. WHILE FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE WHERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, A LIGHTNING IGNITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/01/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0107 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST WITH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
25-40 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
..GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH AMID
MINIMUM RH OF 3-15% WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DESCEND
TO THE SURFACE, WHILE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON LEE SLOPES ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL AID IN LONGER BURN PERIODS WITH 7 TO
15 HOURS OF ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CRITICAL
AREA MAY HAVE MORE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS RATHER THAN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BASED STRICTLY ON SPC'S CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF THE ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS,
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY TO RECORD DRY
FUELS, AND RECENT SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY, THE CRITICAL AREA WAS
EXPANDED.
..WESTERN GREAT BASIN
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND POSSIBLY
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST UTAH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS, BUT A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER
AREAS WITH ERCS EXCEEDING THE 80TH PERCENTILE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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