122
ACUS11 KWNS 011822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011822
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-012015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011822Z - 012015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...SPORADIC DOWNBURSTS ARE EVIDENT IN KPOE AND KHDC
VELOCITY IMAGERY AS SCATTERED, BUT POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. WITH TIME, THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
WARMING INTO THE 90S WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION
OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, AND
INCREASING BUOYANCY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAINTAIN, IF NOT
INCREASE, THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST WET DOWNBURSTS. LOCALIZED SWATHS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS (MOST LIKELY 40-60 MPH) APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE DOWNBURSTS. GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE
PREDOMINANTLY ZONALLY-ORIENTED INITIATION ZONE WITH THE WEAK
EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
PROPAGATING CLUSTERS APPEARS LIMITED, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND THREAT AND THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE FOR LA
AND FAR SOUTHERN MS. NONETHELESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29669058 29659102 29899164 30649350 31169367 31709363
32079334 32289287 32269253 31969181 31279008 31028963
30788937 30518935 30318939 30088963 29829009 29669058
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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