203
ACUS11 KWNS 012008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012008
NYZ000-012215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012008Z - 012215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED, AND ONE OR MORE WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS.
DISCUSSION...MRMS RADAR MOSAICS AND GOES IR IMAGERY SHOW STEADY
GROWTH AND INTENSIFICATION OF TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE
OTTAWA, CANADA REGION. REGIONAL VELOCITY DATA SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES
OF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER, WHICH FURTHER
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BAND. REGIONAL VWPS
ARE SAMPLING MID-LEVEL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25-35 KNOTS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. WHILE MODEST, THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE FURTHER ORGANIZATION
AND DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION INTO NORTHERN NY WHERE MLCAPE HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 3500 J/KG. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WINDS MAY INCREASE IN THE COMING HOURS, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW
FAR DOWNSTREAM THIS THREAT WILL EXTENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND POOR ASSIMILATION OF RECENT
OBS/TRENDS BY LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
FURTHER WEST, THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN ONGOING MCS HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 30-45 MINUTES PER LIGHTNING COUNTS
AND GOES IR IMAGERY. DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR GENERALLY DECREASES WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT TOWARDS THE UPPER RIDGE, BUT LATEST MLCAPE ANALYSES
DEPICT A BUOYANCY GRADIENT DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST MI INTO WESTERN NY.
STORM PROPAGATION ALONG THIS GRADIENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IF THIS CONTINUES, SOME SEVERE WIND THREAT
MAY MANIFEST ACROSS THE GREATER BUFFALO, NY REGION IN THE COMING
HOURS. ACROSS BOTH REGIONS, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42507890 42627912 42887917 43077912 43267901 43327877
43367822 43317765 43287727 43367670 43607632 43827620
44127624 44267618 44927524 45057480 45057367 44837340
44527346 44347360 42327701 42137752 42187787 42507890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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