838
ACUS11 KWNS 012022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012021
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-012145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012021Z - 012145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO, WEST TEXAS, AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F) HAVE
ADVECTED NORTHWESTWARD ONTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS LED TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 2000 TO 2500
J/KG MLCAPE FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITHIN THIS
UNCAPPED AIRMASS, STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE MOUNTAINS IN
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, NEAR THE DRYLINE IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO,
AND ON THE GRADIENT OF THE HEAT AND THE MOISTURE NEAR THE CAPROCK.
THESE STORMS, AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE UNORGANIZED
DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). HOWEVER, THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SHOWN
BY THE KAMA 18Z RAOB) WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE WIND THREAT.
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32600473 33540489 34940435 35920151 35419980 32890044
32080169 32110381 32600473
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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