313
ACUS11 KWNS 012240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012240
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-020015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012240Z - 020015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK, NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A
LOCALIZED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
432 AMID A HOT, HUMID AIR MASS. WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MEAGER
DEEP-LAYER FLOW (LESS THAN 25-30 KTS SAMPLED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
BY THE BGM/ENX VWPS) WILL LARGELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT STRONG BUOYANCY, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, AND
MODESTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER DOWNBURSTS. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.
A LOCALLY GREATER SEVERE RISK, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
COULD MATERIALIZE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE DRAWN AREA AS AN ONGOING LINEAR SEGMENT CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH
OF BUFFALO AND MODESTLY STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 41277655 41857670 42507655 42667608 42657515 42457407
42227351 41957319 41407318 40667373 40317432 40147469
40157519 40617610 41277655
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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