662
ACUS11 KWNS 012305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012305
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-020100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431...
VALID 012305Z - 020100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431.
DISCUSSION...DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATED
COLD POOL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI, SUPPORTING THE
MAINTENANCE AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN ONGOING, LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECTATION IS FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THOUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OWING TO STRONG BUOYANCY,
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, GRADUAL
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION/COOLING IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 7-8 PM CDT.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, A SEPARATE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER THAT
PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH
THIS CLUSTER, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWER
OWING TO MODESTLY WEAKER BUOYANCY ACROSS THIS AREA COMPARED TO
FARTHER NORTHEAST.
..CHALMERS.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31659358 32049363 32999324 33859263 34589190 35119100
35479002 35688904 35518861 35338850 35028858 34648890
34238903 33728882 33428857 33148854 32688862 32458888
32218954 31939043 31619128 31529199 31509292 31549342
31659358
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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