359
ACUS11 KWNS 012311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012311
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NE...NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN
WI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 012311Z - 020115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND AN INCREASING ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK. WHILE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF
THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
ENE/WSW-ORIENTED BAND OF GRADUALLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
ALONG A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST IA AND VICINITY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS, A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ AND RELATED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD REDUCE REMAINING INHIBITION (SAMPLED BY THE OAX 18Z SOUNDING)
AND PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. A WARM/MOIST PBL (LOWER/MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS) BENEATH
STEEP LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, WHICH
COMBINED WITH AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WILL FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
AND BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS
AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES (GIVEN INCREASING
CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS).
WHILE THE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
CONVECTIVE TIMING/EVOLUTION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH WILL
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 44469322 44659194 44589123 44389095 43769060 43349083
42599326 42149444 41699613 41769697 42019768 42649767
43029706 44469322
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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