367
ACUS11 KWNS 020007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020007
NYZ000-020130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432...
VALID 020007Z - 020130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A
BULLSEYE OF LOCALLY GREATER BUOYANCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ONTARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS NOW PROGRESSING TOWARDS
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS CLUSTER REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TO
THE EAST OWING TO PRIOR CONVECTION. GREATER BUOYANCY REMAINS IN
PLACE FARTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER, WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE
ISOLATED AND HAS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED THE LOW-LEVELS. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THIS CLUSTER TO PROGRESS MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SURFACE THETA-E GRADIENT, WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN EDGE AND MAINTENANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION, AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THIS CLUSTER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.
..CHALMERS.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 45027575 45017538 44817490 44427447 43867407 43377384
42977382 42797408 42687452 42587500 42577543 42727615
42917638 43337648 43757652 44307658 44587639 44727620
45027575
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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