900
ACUS11 KWNS 020539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020538
MIZ000-020745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 020538Z - 020745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MI AS OF 0535 UTC. THIS PORTION OF LOWER MI IS
GENERALLY NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 F (COMPARED TO AROUND 80 F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY).
HOWEVER, RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
MUCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE 2000 J/KG EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR (OBSERVED ON THE KAPX VWP) SUPPORTING SOME
ORGANIZED-STORM POTENTIAL.
THE SMALL STORM CLUSTER APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOWER MI MAY PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING-WIND
POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CLUSTER, THOUGH NEAR-SURFACE STABILITY
MAY MITIGATE THIS THREAT TO SOME EXTENT. OTHER DISCRETE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLUSTER COULD POSE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED HAIL, IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
MATURE.
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION, THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN, BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR INCREASING WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44908645 45368527 45318398 45038347 44418343 43778377
43878594 44078658 44278671 44908645
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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