847
ACUS11 KWNS 020658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020658
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-020900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020658Z - 020900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO AS OF 0655 UTC. MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG BUOYANCY, WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MUCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG NORTH OF GREELEY TO GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG
INTO FAR NORTHEAST CO. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40
KT, SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
STRONG MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS. THUS FAR, STORMS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING, WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD SOME CELL
INTERFERENCE. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY
ISOLATED THREAT AND MAKING THE NEED FOR A WATCH UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER,
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE CONSIDERED IF TRENDS SUPPORT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40260520 40900444 41140346 41190292 41030238 40820248
40450284 40200335 40080453 40080494 40260520
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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