845
ACUS03 KWNS 020730
SWODY3
SPC AC 020729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS FOURTH OF JULY
(SATURDAY). THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..MID-ATLANTIC
STRONG HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR, INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS THAT COULD
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH AS WELL AS MARGINALLY GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAN FRIDAY,
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED WHERE A
FEW ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY OCCUR.
..LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY
WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING IN
THE MORNING, BUT SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL. A TORNADO WOULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN BEHIND AN OUTFLOW/FRONT COMPOSITE BOUNDARY IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AROUND 40-45 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY
A BROAD AREA OF 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE LIKELY
CONCERN WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A GREATER WIND THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE IF ANY CLUSTERS/MCS CAN DEVELOP.
..WENDT.. 07/02/2026
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