178
ACUS11 KWNS 021606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021605
WIZ000-IAZ000-021730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021605Z - 021730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...STORM COVERAGE HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IS NEARLY UNCAPPED
WITH 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MLCAPE. ONGOING STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED,
BUT GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING, THEY MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. EITHER WAY, THERE IS SUFFICIENT MUCAPE IN THE
AREA. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW, WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
..BENTLEY/HART.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42619503 43059478 43409402 43469305 43489102 43328999
42589015 42299226 42239425 42359507 42619503
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page