991
FNUS21 KWNS 021639
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
..MORNING UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS
REGION, POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND RESIDUAL GUSTY WINDS
FURTHER INTENSIFIED THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT, MAINTAINING ACTIVE
BEHAVIOR ON SEVERAL WILDFIRES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (AS
DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY). DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 3-12%
ACROSS THE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL RISK AREAS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES (AND ADJACENT PLAINS) INTO THE WEST SLOPE.
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, ERCS ARE APPROACHING THE 90-95TH
PERCENTILE. THE PIEDMONT AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEE RH VALUES DECLINE
TO 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS TO
EMERGE WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST. WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR,
WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH POSSIBLE.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AMID A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE WEST. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION.
..GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-20 MPH GUSTING 20-30 MPH AMID
MINIMUM RH OF 3-12% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS
REGION. CONTINUED POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXTENDED
BURN PERIODS AGAIN, WITH MOST AREAS HAVING 5-15 HOURS OF AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHIN THE ELEVATED AREA. PORTIONS
OF THE CRITICAL AREA MAY HAVE ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR NEARLY 20
HOURS, INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASPEN ACRES FIRE. LARGE
SWATHS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES ARE NEAR OR SETTING NEW RECORD HIGH
ERC VALUES, WITH ERCS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE ELEVATED AREA.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW FORECAST MUCAPE
(<250 J/KG), RISING HEIGHTS, AND LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA WITH MORE RECEPTIVE
FUELS (ERCS > 80TH PERCENTILE).
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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