515
ACUS02 KWNS 021719
SWODY2
SPC AC 021717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS, WITH
A SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
AN NORTHEAST, AS MODEST MID AND HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES PERSIST. IN
THE LOW LEVELS, SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS, AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
MAINTAIN 70S F DEWPOINTS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE HIGH. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL
STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE ZONE.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ANY OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO MIX, WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. CELLS WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INITIALLY WITH LOCALIZED HAIL AND WIND. LARGER COVERAGE
OF STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO NORTHERN NE DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
MCSS. HOWEVER, SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR INITIALLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND A
BRIEF TORNADO. SUPPORTING A SEVERE MCS WILL BE AMPLE PRECIPITABLE
WATER, STRONG INSTABILITY, AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DURING THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT.
...MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NY, PA
AND NJ...
THE ENTIRE CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI INTO NY
AND NJ WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ROBUST MOISTURE.
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM WI/IL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AND
ALSO NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, AFFECTING OH, PA, NY. MODEST
WESTERLIES ALOFT AND THE UNCAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT A FEW LONGER-LIVED CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY PROCEED INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO EARLY EVENING.
..TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GA
WITHIN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT, JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MID 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY, WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS MOVING
WEST/NORTHWEST BY MID/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 07/02/2026
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