616
FNUS22 KWNS 021942
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
CRITICAL RISK AREA BASED ON UPDATED GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, ERCS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 95-99TH PERCENTILE ON DAY 2/FRIDAY. THE
PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL SEE RH
VALUES DECLINE TO 20-35%, PROMOTING LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
TO EMERGE WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST. WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR,
WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH POSSIBLE.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE.
HOWEVER, LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION.
..GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION
WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
AMID MINIMUM RH OF 3-12% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WHILE MORE LOCALLY CRITICAL RATHER THAN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING, THERMAL-INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGHING, AND ENOUGH
FLOW ALOFT LED TO THE INCLUSION OF THE CRITICAL DELINEATION.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE END OF SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WHERE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE ACTIVITY HAS TRANSPIRED. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE, WITH 5-15 HOURS OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEVADA, NORTHERN UTAH, AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO. FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER
PLACES WITH ERC VALUES BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES AND
HAVE HAD RAINFALL AT LEAST ONCE THIS WEEK. WHILE LIGHTNING IGNITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AN ISODRYT AREA IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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