450
ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WESTERN KANSAS...AND
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE TN VALLEY, AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER, APPRECIABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF SEVERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RELATIVELY ROBUST SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION HAS OCCURRED ALONG MESOSCALE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARIES, AMID GENERALLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, TO SUPPORT
INSTANCES OF 2-3 INCH DIAMETER HAIL OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN SD, AS WELL
AS INSTANCES OF BRIEF AND MODEST ROTATION WITH STORMS OVER
NORTHEASTERN IA. PLEASE SEE MCDS 1440-1441 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS OF
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS ARE MOVING ROUGHLY
NORMAL TO BOUNDARY ORIENTATION, PUTTING THE DURATION OF HIGHER-END
SEVERE INTO QUESTION. AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
THOUGH, THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL OF AN MCS TRAVERSING A BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. A LOCALLY
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF DAMAGING GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. MANY OF THE ONGOING STORMS (ESPECIALLY
OVER SD) ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE, CASTING UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE IMPACTS THE ONGOING STORMS WILL HAVE ON LATER
AFTERNOON INITIATION AND EVOLUTION ALONG OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
AS SUCH, PRUDENCE WAS EXERCISED IN FAVOR OF MAKING ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1124 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026/
..SD TO WI
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK AND/OR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD MARGINAL TO MODERATE
AFTERNOON CAPE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS LEADS TO
A FORECAST OF A LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
BUT WITH WEAK/NEBULOUS FORCING AND GENERAL HEIGHT-RISES ALOFT. AS
SUCH, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EVIDENT FROM
SOUTHERN SD INTO CENTRAL IA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN IA NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL WITH A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT.
OTHER INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SD/NE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, ALSO WITH A
RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..WESTERN KS
FULL SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO A REGION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CAM
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE
KS/CO BORDER AND SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT CAPE SUGGEST A RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
..TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
A WIDESPREAD VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT TODAY
ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH FULL SUNSHINE LEADING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. WEAK FORCING UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION OF STORMS.
HOWEVER, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN MERGING OUTFLOWS AND THE RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
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