843
ACUS11 KWNS 022018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022018
VTZ000-NYZ000-022215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO VERMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022018Z - 022215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM ONTARIO INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK/VERMONT. WHILE THESE STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF 55-60 MPH WINDS, WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE > 2500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM LONGEVITY AND INTERMITTENT
ORGANIZATION THAT COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 55-60
MPH. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION MEANS
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..HALBERT/HART.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43727662 44167685 44487679 44837663 45057635 45227601
45597504 45627385 45457307 45027274 44497280 43917340
43577448 43527560 43667635 43727662
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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