043
ACUS11 KWNS 022038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022038
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-022245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438...
VALID 022038Z - 022245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438 CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM CDT.
STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
55-70 MPH.
DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL FLOW,
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA HAVE BEEN
LARGELY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER, GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES, MODEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT, AND TALL MIXED-LAYER LCL HEIGHTS NEAR 2
KM, WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFT
CORES. THESE MICROBURSTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 55-70
MPH. SINCE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION,
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE REDUCTION IN SURFACE HEATING.
..HALBERT.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36718890 36748797 36768688 36698641 36428619 35808599
35198578 34668561 34398552 34248570 34198624 34188675
34148717 34198762 34268801 34498828 35188851 35918868
36488888 36718890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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